Air Force Gen. Gregory M. Guillot, head of NORAD and U.S. Northern Command, called for greater domain awareness in the Arctic in the wake of recent approaches to North America by Chinese and Russian bombers.
Two Russian TU-95 Bear bombers accompanied two Chinese H-6 strategic bombers into the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in July, the first such incident on record. “What happened a few weeks ago shows another expansion of Chinese presence in the Arctic,” Guillot said at the Army Space and Missile Defense Symposium on Aug. 7. “They claim to be a near Arctic nation and their maritime activities have been increasing over the last decade, but this is the first significant show of presence in the air domain.”
More incursions and approaches seem likely. Guillot warned in March that he sees “a willingness and a desire by the Chinese to act up there” in the Arctic. The Russians also pose a threat, he said, noting the approach of Russian bombers from the northeast—near Greenland and Iceland—as opposed to their more familiar approaches from the northwest, near Alaska.
“The presence of a competitor in a different domain from a different avenue of approach is noteworthy to us,” he said.
Guillot said he conducted a 90-day review of NORAD and NORTHCOM after taking command in February, adding: “The first takeaway is that all of the initiatives and endeavors that my predecessor, Gen. Glen VanHerck, undertook to improve domain awareness from the seabed all the way to space were exactly right and need to remain on track.”
VanHerck fought for greater funding in the High North during his NORAD tenure, and his drive gained urgency after a Chinese spy balloon slipped past NORAD radars and then transited the continental U.S. in early 2023 before it was shot down over the Atlantic.
“I have concerns, as I have articulated for three years, about my ability to provide threat warning and attack assessment with the threats to our homeland,” VanHerck told lawmakers in March 2023. “That increases the risk of escalation and strategic deterrence failure. Those are significant challenges for me.”
Guillot praised VanHerck for his “considerable efforts,” and said it is the “right move” to complete projects like new over-the-horizon radars, long-range mobile radars, and communications networks.
Incursions into air defense indication zones are not the same as entering U.S. or Canadian airspace; the ADIZ is a buffer zone in which aircraft must identify themselves. Guillot said NORAD is “accustomed to this activity, and we’re poised 24/7 to counter it.”
Countering that behavior requires forces to be on alert to respond when needed, and that has implications for force size as well as posture. Guillot said he is working to find the right balance of “just-in-time” and “just-in-case” forces.
“In some cases, I think we might have too many just-in-case forces, which are truly necessary, but if you have too many of them, you start to have capability just sitting on alert,” Guillot said. Air Force units can be stressed by such constant need.
“The fighters, tankers and AWACS [Airborne Warning and Control System planes] that sit on alert, I think there can be some adjustments there, where we can take some of the forces that are sitting on alert, hand them back to the services to increase readiness,” he said. As long, he added, “as we have the right triggers and authorities to bring them back.”