A majority of panelists convened by the Atlantic Council to assess the situation in Ukraine believe that Russia will have enough forces—and recent practice in Belarus—to invade Ukraine within a month. A senior Air Force official concurred, saying the service expects the conflict soon.

The Space Force won’t speculate publicly on details about Russia’s debris-generating test of an anti-satellite weapon in low Earth orbit in November. Outside experts, on the other hand, suspect that the weapon approached the target satellite from behind and below and broke it up into relatively fewer, but more massive, fragments for a satellite its size. New fragments from the Russian ASAT test have already resulted in hundreds of close encounters with pre-existing objects, and while half of those conjunctions were with operational satellites, the other half—with derelict objects such as old rocket bodies—were of the type that could pose a greater hazard over time.

AFRICAN AIR CHIEFS SYMPOSIUM, KIGALI, Rwanda—The 10-hour flight on a U.S. Air Force Gulfstream III from Ramstein Air Base, Germany, to Kigali, Rwanda, reminded U.S. Air Forces in Europe-Air Forces Africa chief Gen. Jeffrey L. Harrigian that even a small investment in Africa goes a long way toward advancing American security and building partnerships on the continent. “I was reminded, as I flew from Germany down here, the size and scope of the continent,” said Harrigian at the African Air Chiefs Symposium attended by 32 of Africa’s 54 nations. “You may not be able to see it in big platforms and those kinds of things. But you see it in the relationships.”

The Federal Trade Commission is suing to stop the planned Lockheed Martin/Aerojet Rocketdyne merger, saying the deal would give Lockheed Martin unfair advantages while harming competition and innovation. Lockheed Martin has 30 days to decide whether to defend the merger in court or drop the effort. A court date of June 22 is set if it fights.

The Air Force selected March Air Reserve Base in California as the preferred location to host the next Air Force Reserve KC-46 tankers. A final basing decision is expected in the fall of 2023 after completion of an environmental impact analysis. If approved, the Air Force will replace March’s KC-135 Stratotankers with 12 new tankers.