The first iteration of the Pentagon’s Replicator initiative should achieve its goals of providing thousands of cheap, autonomous platforms in all combat domains by July 2025, the deputy director of the Defense Innovation Unit said Dec. 12.
Aditi Kumar, speaking at the Hudson Institute, said Replicator—the signature initiative of Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks—was planned as a two-year campaign and, after starting in September 2023, should meet its objectives on time.
“We’re in good shape” to provide “multiple thousands of attritable, autonomous systems in multiple domains” within eight months, Kumar said. “Our acquisition enterprise is sprinting, and our commercial vendors are sprinting, to pull these off of the production lines and get them into the hands of the warfighter.”
Replicator was also meant to improve and speed up the Pentagon’s acquisition processes, Kumar added, and the fact that the it will meet its deadline is a positive sign on that front.
A second iteration of Replicator, dubbed Replicator 2 and announced by Hicks in September, is “going to be focused on doing exactly the same thing,” but this time focused on a counter-drone capability.
“So now we’re executing both in parallel,” Kumar said.
Lessons from the first Replicator push are already starting to inform the second. Kumar cited one lesson as the need for transparency and consistent communications with industry about “what exactly we’re going after,” and when.
For example, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III announced the Pentagon’s new counter-unmanned system strategy last week, and DIU officials have already held subsequent roundtables with industry and investors to clarify “our demand signal and the types of systems and capabilities that we will be pursuing” with Replicator 2, Kumar said.
“I think that will get us off on the right foot and accelerating quickly with the commercial sector as our partners,” she said.
A second lesson learned is to “start early on the hardest problems, which in many cases are the software problems.” For Replicator 1, “we’re doing a whole host of things related to collaborative autonomy and command and control,” and for Replicator 2, command and control is once again a key challenge.
A third lesson is “early and frequent communications with Congress,” Kumar said. DIU leadership has been on Capitol Hill explaining “what Replicator 2 looks like, what types of capabilities we’re looking to field and in what locations, so that there are early supporters as we think about funding this enormous challenge.”
Asked what the DIU has learned from the Ukraine war, Kumar said combat experience is driving Ukraine to update the software of its systems on increasingly short timelines.
Ukraine’s experience has “been very helpful to us,” demonstrating that “software upgrades need to happen on a three- to four-week timeline, which is incredibly fast and has a cost,” she said. Historically, she said, the Pentagon has not funded software aggressively or pushed updates quickly. That has to change with “significantly different types and magnitude of investment.”
This approach will also help with “some of the paralysis” services sometimes have in committing to a new system because they fear that once they buy it, it will be quickly overtaken by technology or the threat, she said.
Kumar said the big challenges with Replicator and other future systems is ensuring “collaborative” interaction between autonomous systems, and the command-and-control apparatus that links joint systems, so they can cue other services’ platforms and provide situational awareness for the joint enterprise.
Air Force Replicator
While the Air Force did not have systems included in the first round of Replicator systems, Hicks announced a “Replicator 1.2,” or “second tranche” of the Replicator program on Nov. 13. These new systems are meant to “add to the first tranche of selected systems announced earlier in 2024” and are also geared toward an August 2025 fielding target.
The Air Force’s Enterprise Test Vehicle was included in the second tranche, and the service will partner with the DIU and “multiple vendors to develop and demonstrate design variants.” The four companies involved are Anduril Industries; Integrated Solutions for Systems, Inc.; Leidos Dynetics; and Zone 5 Technologies. Selected ETV prototypes will be “accelerated to scaled production,” the Pentagon said in a release accompanying Hicks’ announcement.
Air Force Vice Chief of Staff Gen. James Slife said the ETV’s modular design and open system architecture “make it an ideal platform for program offices to test out new capabilities at the subsystem level, reducing risk and demonstrating various options for weapon system employment.”
Hicks said Replicator is “demonstrably reducing barriers to innovation, and delivering capabilities to warfighters at a rapid pace.” She also said that of the more than 500 companies that were considered Replicator contracts, more than 30 received them, and of those, some 75 percent are “nontraditional defense contractors.”
Counter-Drone
It remains to be seen whether an Air Force program will be included in Replicator 2, but the service is likely to have some interest in the project. Officials say the Air Force needs to take on the counter-UAS and air defense missions because its Agile Combat Employment model—which will spread out small Air Force units across a wide number of small and austere airfields—will require more air defense assets than the Army seems able to provide. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall recently said he’s “comfortable” taking over air defense “as an organic mission” from the Army.
Ravi Chaudhury, assistant secretary of the Air Force for energy, installations, and the environment, hinted at future developments on that front at an AFA Warfighters in Action event on Dec. 11
“We’re busy putting together what that’s going to look like going forward,” he said. ” … More to follow” but “we’re talking about it very, very intently and deliberately at the Pentagon to decide what we’re going to do about our installations and this particular challenge,” and that there may be something to announce “in the not too distant future.”