Promotions for New Staff Sergeants: Fewest in 27 Years

Just 9,000 senior airmen were selected for promotion to staff sergeant this year, a 17.4 percent selection rate—numbers unseen since the years following the Cold War. 

The Air Force Personnel Center disclosed statistics for the E-5 cycle Aug. 8, and plans to release the list of selectees on Aug. 10 at 9 a.m. Eastern. It will be the smallest list since 1992, and represent the lowest selection rate since 1997. 

It’s also the second consecutive tough promotion cycle for E-5. Last year, just 9,706 Airmen were promoted from a pool of 45,991, for a 21.1 percent rate. At the time, it was the lowest rate since 1997. 

The numbers tell the story of strong retention amidst a recruiting crisis. When more Airmen stay, competition for promotion intensifies and opportunities for promotion are squeezed. Promotions to technical sergeant were also low this year: The Air Force announced earlier this summer that just 14.5 percent of eligible staff sergeants were selected for promotion to technical sergeant, also the lowest rate since 1996. 

Slow promotion rates are likely to persist. Air Force officials said last year they anticipated lower-than-usual promotion rates lasting several years. Officials believe too many Airmen were promoted in the past with insufficient experience to be effective senior noncommissioned officers, and that a course correction was needed. 

“The majority of the experience decline was attributable to the Air Force trying to achieve an enlisted force structure with too many higher grades,” Col. James Barger, Air Force Manpower Analysis Agency commander, said in a statement at the time. “We also found that experience levels would continue to decline unless the Air Force lays in more junior Airmen allocations and fewer E5-E7 allocations.” 

The goal: Reach a healthier grade distribution by 2025. 

Meanwhile, promotions to senior NCO grades are improving. Rates for master sergeant and senior master sergeant ticked up this year.

The promotion slowdown for NCO grades is the most drastic in a generation. Not since the end of the Cold War, when the military forces shed 700,000 troops in less than a decade, have promotions been so slow, according to RAND.

Air Force Staff Sergeant Promotion Statistics

YEAR	SELECTED	ELIGIBLE	PROMOTION RATE
2023	9,000	51,717	17.40
2022	9,706	45,991	21.10
2021	15,660	44,663	35.06
2020	13,864	33,341	41.58
2019	14,235	29,179	48.79
2018	15,669	30,651	51.12
2017	14,181	32,006	44.31
2016	16,506	39,064	42.25
2015	13,269	39,260	33.8
2014	9,403	36,739	25.59
2013	11,212	34,078	32.9
2012	13,448	33,060	40.68
2011	11,337	26,549	42.7
2010	13,518	28,510	47.41
2009	15,223	30,574	49.79
2008	12,209	28,098	43.45
2007	15,130	36,608	41.33
2006	13,298	37,071	35.87
2005	14,614	36,405	40.14
2004	13,625	33,306	40.91
2003	13,651	27,416	49.79
2002	19,448	30,880	62.98
2001	20,793	32,170	64.63
2000	19,605	38,654	50.72
1999	16,053	44,109	36.39
1998	11,033	48,719	22.65
1997	9,854	52,820	18.66
1996	9,541	57,523	16.59