Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall, on the verge of leaving the Pentagon, said he would accelerate production of the B-21 bomber if there was money to do so. But even so, it couldn’t happen right away, he said in an interview with Air & Space Forces Magazine.
More broadly, Kendall said drastically shortening the acquisition time of modern weapons is probably unrealistic, but that selective stockpiling of long-lead parts and materials could help position the nation for wartime surge production.
“If it’s affordable, that would make some sense,” Kendall said of accelerating B-21 production, but the problem is the flexibility of the existing infrastructure and contracting.
“There’s only so much we can do about it [the production rate] in the near term, and the near term, for me, is the five-year plan,” he said. “I have talked to industry about the possibility of higher rates than we currently have planned.”
The production rate of the B-21 is classified but is estimated to be fewer than seven aircraft per year at peak. Outgoing Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment William LaPlante has said the B-21 was structured to be a low-rate program to safeguard it against budget poaching. However, Air Force Global Strike Command leaders and others have suggested building more than the planned 100 airplanes is necessary to achieve needed sortie rates in a future major war.
Kendall noted that the ultimate number of B-21s to be bought will be a question for future Air Force leaders to determine. But he said the Air Force’s force structure has been “very heavily weighted toward relatively short-ranged fighters” for some time, and putting more emphasis on buying bombers could be “worthwhile” because “we’re somewhat out of balance right now.”
“It’s worthwhile to rethink that,” he said, because bombers have great flexibility to support global operations. But rebalancing the force could take years, if not decades.
“It will take a while to acquire more B-21s even if you increase the rate,” Kendall said. Even if that happens, “you can hang on to some of the existing bombers a little bit longer than we currently have planned” to preserve long-range strike capacity.
“Making that transition is going to take a little bit of time, but I do think it’s well worth considering, as we look to the future, and the flexibility you have with the bomber force.”
Kendall also said it is unlikely the Pentagon can return to some of the production capacity strategies heavily used during the Cold War, when there were competitive annual buys of engines, missiles, munitions, and more.
“When the Cold War ended … we shrank budgets dramatically, and an enormous amount of consolidation occurred” within the defense industry, he noted. As long as cost effectiveness and affordability are important, the cost of redundant production lines can be hard to justify.
“I don’t know that we’re going to be able to do a lot” of those Cold War-era competitive production programs, Kendall said, though he’s been approached about the idea, particularly for munitions.
The Pentagon should probably “put some capital into increasing our industrial capacity” to produce weapons, and especially “high-demand spare parts,” but it’s difficult because “there’s no way you can guarantee future production so we’ll have to find a way to do that up front.”
It’s a question that will be “critical” for the new administration, he said.
“Industry is not going to do it because we ask them to. They’re going to do it because we’ll pay them to,” he warned.
Expecting breakthroughs that will “dramatically shorten the lead times” in the production of sophisticated weapons is also “unrealistic,” Kendall said.
“It’s not going to happen,” he said. “We can probably cut some things off on the margin, but the complexity of those products and the supply chains that support them, make dramatic reductions in lead time really difficult to come by.”
Stockpiling some items “that are big drivers for those long lead times, done thoughtfully” could help shorten production surge time for some systems.
Kendall noted that privately held companies have the flexibility to change the production model much more than publicly traded contractors, and that tension will be felt in the coming years.
Anduril Industries, a private firm, has announced investment in new factories that it claims will drastically shorten production times on sophisticated systems like cruise missiles, and Kendall said it can move in that direction. “There is capital available out there,” he said, “but eventually it’s going to need a return. So I think the government should work with industry to find opportunities to do that sort of thing. But it’s going to have to be done in a way which makes sense for both sides.