Air & Space Forces Magazine traveled the the globe in 2024 to cover the biggest stories involving the U.S. Air Force and Space Force, from Ukraine to the Middle East, from Florida to California. Between regional conflicts in Europe and the Middle East and tensions with China in the Indo-Pacific, not to mention budget battles and a major “re-organization” effort, there have been no shortage of storylines to follow.
Now, as we head into 2025, here are some of the stories that we’ll be keeping a close eye on.
Who’s the Boss?
It’s not just a beloved 1980s sitcom—it’s also the biggest unknown facing the Department of the Air Force as it heads into the new year. President-elect Donald Trump has announced his picks for virtually every other major Pentagon post, including the other service secretaries. But his choice for the Air Force remains unknown.
The pick could reverse course from outgoing Secretary Frank Kendall, who emphasized the need for modernization with his Operational Imperatives and pushed for a sweeping re-organization. They could try to shepherd those initiatives to completion. They could focus on Trump’s stated desire to “purge” the military of diversity initiatives, or place a greater emphasis on readiness. Until there’s a person tapped to take over as 27th Secretary of the Air Force, we just don’t know.
What Happens to NGAD and CCA?
Perhaps the most pressing decision facing whomever Trump picks is what to do about the Next-Generation Air Dominance fighter
NGAD was long seen as the successor to the F-22 as the Air Force’s top air-to-air platform. That was all throw up in the air when Kendall announced a “pause” on the program in July 2024, citing the price of the fighter amid a constrained budget and the emergence of new technologies like Collaborative Combat Aircraft drones.
Kendall formed a blue-ribbon panel of former Air Chiefs and other experts to review NGAD but after additional study, preliminary media reports indicate minimal changes to the project. Kendall took the input, but deferred a decisions on the program to the new administration, arguing that he wants the new leadership team to “own” the choice and offer a clear path forward to industry.
The corollary to the NGAD question is CCA—the program to develop autonomous drones that can fly alongside manned platforms. Kendall has said his work pushing forward CCA is likely to be his biggest legacy as secretary, and there seems to be a common consensus on the importance of the program. But just how fast it can move forward remains to be seen. Officials have said they want several hundred drones flying by the end of the decade.
What’s Next for B-21?
The B-21 Raider, the Air Force’s stealthy, secretive new bomber, entered flight testing at Edwards Air Force Base, Calif., at the very beginning of 2024, and little has been said since.
The service has released a few pictures and a video, aviation enthusiasts have snapped a few photos of their own, and officials have said that generally everything is going well with the new aircraft, which has been described as the world’s first “sixth-generation” aircraft and will eventually comprise one-half of the Air Force bomber fleet alongside the B-52.
But there are precious few details on its flight testing program besides the fact that it has been flying up to twice a week, and there are no hard timelines set for when the Raider might enter service.
Of note, B-1 bombers have been relocated from Ellsworth Air Force Base, S.D., to allow for construction on the base’s runway in advance of the first B-21’s arrival. The base has said that is expected in the “mid-2020s.”
Curious observers will be hungry for more details, however few or vague, in 2025.
Integrated Capabilities Command
One of the biggest changes from the re-organization the Air Force announced earlier this year was the creation of a new command to coordinate the service’s requirements process. ICC, as envisioned, would centralize and streamline how the Air Force sets requirements for its future force, while freeing other commands to focus more on current needs.
In September, Chief of Staff Gen. David W. Allvin announced the standup of a provisional ICC, with the goal of achieving full operational capability in 2025. But he has noted that of all the reorg plans the service announced, this command may be the toughest to drive to completion.
Part of that challenge is because the new command will require moving personnel and establishing a headquarters, which means it will receive special attention from lawmakers and will need Congressional approval. But there is also the question of how the ICC commander, expected to be a three-star general, will be able to juggle the desires of all the other commands, some led by four-stars, who will likely be advocating for their future needs. A four-star commander might be needed to ensure ICC can take the leadership role it needs.
REFORPAC
Another initiative announced was a major exercise in the Indo-Pacific in summer 2025. Officials later debuted the name “Resolute Force Pacific,” or REFORPAC, to evoke the annual REFORGER (“Return of Forces to Germany”) exercises the U.S. conducted for years during the Cold War.
The scale of the exercise is meant to be vast—nearly 300 aircraft spread across 25 locations in the Pacific, outstripping all other major exercises the service has held in recent years.
But leaders have warned that the scale of the exercise may have to be pared back if Congress does not pass a new budget in time. The Pentagon is currently operating on a continuing resolution that freezes funding levels at last year’s levels until March 2025.
Pacific Air Forces boss Gen. Kevin B. Schneider told Air & Space Forces Magazine in December that planning for REFORPAC is underway, with options in place depending on the funds available. Either way, large-scale exercises are seen as crucial to work out joint operating concepts and command and control kinds for future combat against a peer like China.
Warrant Officers
One of the most popular changes the Air Force announced in 2024 was the reintroduction of warrant officers inthe cyber and IT career fields. Warrant officers fill technical rather than leadership functions, and Air Force officials say the cyber and IT fields are so fast-moving, they need experts who are more interested in staying up to date on the latest technical knowledge than climbing a leadership career ladder.
The first class of warrant officers graduated in December, and another cohort isn’t far behind. But there are still lots of unknowns—how the Air Force will employ these new warrant officers, what the feedback will be on their value to commands, and which other career fields might be added next.
Space Force Growth
After explosive growth in its early years, the Space Force faced its first proposed budget cut for 2025, though a final defense spending bill has still yet to be approved.
Meanwhile, leaders have grown increasingly vocal about the need for more manpower and resources to fulfill all the Space Force’s growing missions, particularly counter-space efforts.
The service got its start under President Donald Trump, and his return to office could boost its efforts to expand. If the new administration does support a bigger Space Force, the rate at which it grows will be watched closely. It will also be interesting to note if new leaders place more emphasis on the mission of offensive space or discuss it more openly—it has long been considered a taboo topic but has been a key discussion point in Chief of Space Operations Gen. B. Chance Saltzman’s push for more resources.
Air Force Growth
The Air Force has been squeezed by rising costs for nuclear modernization and the need to modernize other parts of the force. That’s driven controversial decisions to retire equipment, particularly fighter aircraft, to free funding to pay for future modernization.
Congress has resisted those cuts, but also shown skepticism about the F-35 fighter and the Air Force’s overall strategy. The only real way to solve the problem is to increase overall spending on the Air Force and to “buy more Air Force,” in the words of Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin. The incoming administration will face major decisions about how to pay for more Air Force and what it might be willing to give up to acquire more jets faster.